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  #49  
Old 01-23-2011, 08:43 AM
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Re: caveat emptor - let the flaming begin

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Originally Posted by Milous View Post
Your information is incorrect. They are now combining RRT's (Rapid Response Transmittals) with TSB's. RRT's have always been around, they are simply a method of QUICKLY getting out information on a particular problem. A TSB takes longer due to legal approval and other factors. NOTHING has been changed to make the amount of bulletins released "look smaller".

At the same point in time after release, the WK had twice as many TSB's issued than the WK2 has. But TSB's vary in severity so counting them is not really an accurate method to determine reliability.




the main point you are missing milous is 'it is my opinion' as I stated here since last march; I do not buy first MY vehicles period. and nothing i have seen on the wk2 is changing that. I used the WK as an example as the data was at my finger tips. the WK didnt form my opinion; I have had it for 30+ years of owning vehicles. it ONLY reinforces it. now maybe when the dust settles the wk2 will prove my opinion to be incorrect???? time will tell.
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  #50  
Old 01-23-2011, 09:05 AM
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Re: caveat emptor - let the flaming begin

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Originally Posted by Navy1 View Post
The number of members and posters here COULD be statistically significant for a population of 100K members. We don't have enough data to support whether it is statistically significant or not. Based on your assumptions then, the gallup polls who only poll 100 people and INFER the populations of millions then is not legit. I do believe there are enough members posting here with problems to be an adequate sample to INFER the population as a whole.
This isn't an opinion poll we're talking about. With just a handful of regular posters who own an WK2, I wouldn't put too much faith into trying to make any kind of statistical analysis when it comes to mechanical/electrical issues of the WK2.

Here's an example: If three WK2 owners posted that their WIN module failed, what does that mean? How can we use that information statistically? Just because three people said it happened to them, what about other WK2 owners who are also members of the forum? You'd have to ask them (and get a yes/no response) if you are using them as part of your sample, especially considering that this forum would be such a tiny representative sample of the overall population. Come on....this is Statistics 101.
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  #51  
Old 01-23-2011, 09:21 AM
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Re: caveat emptor - let the flaming begin

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Originally Posted by MSCA View Post
This isn't an opinion poll we're talking about. With just a handful of regular posters who own an WK2, I wouldn't put too much faith into trying to make any kind of statistical analysis when it comes to mechanical/electrical issues of the WK2.

Here's an example: If three WK2 owners posted that their WIN module failed, what does that mean? How can we use that information statistically? Just because three people said it happened to them, what about other WK2 owners who are also members of the forum? You'd have to ask them (and get a yes/no response) if you are using them as part of your sample, especially considering that this forum would be such a tiny representative sample of the overall population. Come on....this is Statistics 101.
Well first of all, it doesn't matter whether its an opinion poll or not. Statistics is statistics based on data samples from populations. What are your qualifications for statistics? I have a graduate Operational Analysis degree and use this stuff daily so I know what I'm talking about. Unless you are credentialed and use this stuff as often as I do, then to me it doesn't matter what your position is. As usual, you always have to be right with everything you post and no one else can weigh in on a subject. Really it doesn't matter, I'm not arguing with you, just don't tell me I'm wrong when I know what I'm talking about.
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  #52  
Old 01-23-2011, 09:22 AM
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Re: caveat emptor - let the flaming begin

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Originally Posted by Knightrider03m View Post
x2. 1st run cars are almost always bad juju.
And yet most of us could not be happier....
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  #53  
Old 01-23-2011, 09:36 AM
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Re: caveat emptor - let the flaming begin

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Originally Posted by Navy1 View Post
Well first of all, it doesn't matter whether its an opinion poll or not. Statistics is statistics based on data samples from populations. What are your qualifications for statistics? I have a graduate Operational Analysis degree and use this stuff daily so I know what I'm talking about. Unless you are credentialed and use this stuff as often as I do, then to me it doesn't matter what your position is. As usual, you always have to be right with everything you post and no one else can weigh in on a subject. Really it doesn't matter, I'm not arguing with you, just don't tell me I'm wrong when I know what I'm talking about.
So you understand that statistically speaking, those who have initial problems are much more likely to share their experiences than those who haven't had any issues.

Since you're a stats guru, is it true that an unhappy customer tells 10 of his friends while a happy one tells only 1?

IMHO, this isn't a right or wrong issue, it's about those of us with the WK2 sharing our experiences to make the vehicle better for other owners or those considering a purchase of one.
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  #54  
Old 01-23-2011, 09:45 AM
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Re: caveat emptor - let the flaming begin

Well, I've been buying & driving vehicles for 45 years. During that time I've bought 6 new first year vehicles, including both the '93 and '11 GC. It's fun being the first guy on the block, and in the city, having a new model. Since I don't have a brand loyalty, I just buy those vehicles that appeal to me the most. These have included GM, Ford, Chrysler and a few European and Japanese products.

I usually keep my vehicles for 3 to 5 years. Based on my experience, I can honestly say that my first year vehicles have had no more problems than those I've purchased in the middle of their model run. In some cases, the 1st year vehicles have had less problems.

However, I feel you can't really compare vehicles built more than 5 years ago to those built today (statistically, or otherwise), since technology, design and manufacturing processes, and materials have all changed so much. The only common denominator I've found over the years is the quality of the dealer's service department.

Unfortunately, as in any high volume production run, there will always be some units that fall through the quality cracks. But for me, based on my first impressions, my '11 GC is one of the best vehicles I've driven off the dealer's lot - ever.
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  #55  
Old 01-23-2011, 10:02 AM
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Re: caveat emptor - let the flaming begin

^^^^^^+1

That's been my experience too and you are so right, the local service department is the key to a happy owner.
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  #56  
Old 01-23-2011, 10:02 AM
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Re: caveat emptor - let the flaming begin

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Originally Posted by Navy1 View Post
Well first of all, it doesn't matter whether its an opinion poll or not. Statistics is statistics based on data samples from populations. What are your qualifications for statistics? I have a graduate Operational Analysis degree and use this stuff daily so I know what I'm talking about. Unless you are credentialed and use this stuff as often as I do, then to me it doesn't matter what your position is. As usual, you always have to be right with everything you post and no one else can weigh in on a subject. Really it doesn't matter, I'm not arguing with you, just don't tell me I'm wrong when I know what I'm talking about.
Actually, it does matter. An opinion poll typically gives respondents two or more choices. If a respondent chooses not to answer a particular question, it becomes part of the "other" category. Comparing that to a few random posts in an automotive forum is beyond silly, but I'm sure you know that already. It's applies and oranges, big time.

I'm glad that you think your graduate degree in OA makes you qualified to have this discussion. I also have a Masters (MBA) and have spent plenty of time in school and out working with statistics. I use stats at work all the time. Happy now?

If you can't see the flaws in your argument, then I suggest we don't continue with this discussion.
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  #57  
Old 01-23-2011, 10:03 AM
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Re: caveat emptor - let the flaming begin

I purchased a 1999 Ford Super Duty 3/4 ton truck after watching that vehicle develop on-line for a long time, just like I have been watching the WK2 progress. That truck was one of the first of its kind in the Phoenix area and it has been the best truck I have ever had (I've had 6 total) and still have for that matter. Both vehicles fit my idea of what I was looking for at the time.

The Ford was a first year release and I was nervous back then and had misgivings galore. I hope to have the same luck with the WK2 but realize the potential for problems and is why I plan on getting the Lifetime warranty, Max care version for it. Jeep has a lot to lose if this vehicle fails and I believe they will do whatever is feasible to make it right (within Fiat limits of course). Good luck to all of us potential owners!
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Old 01-23-2011, 10:07 AM
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Re: caveat emptor - let the flaming begin

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Originally Posted by mjw930 View Post
^^^^^^+1

That's been my experience too and you are so right, the local service department is the key to a happy owner.
This cannot be repeated enough times.

It was *the* main issue I had when buying this vehicle. I researched many Jeep dealers and finally made the decision when I was comfortable buying one from a place where I would be getting it serviced. (it also meant driving further to the dealer, but I'm in Philly, so it wasn't a big issue)
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  #59  
Old 01-23-2011, 10:08 AM
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Re: caveat emptor - let the flaming begin

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Originally Posted by the1jake View Post
So you understand that statistically speaking, those who have initial problems are much more likely to share their experiences than those who haven't had any issues.
One is not mutually exclusive of the other. Just because people are more vocal when something goes wrong has nothing to do with statistical data on potential issues of any given vehicle. In other words, if you read a few people complaining about similar problems on a message forum, that doesn't necessarily mean that the problem is statistically significant. It also doesn't mean that it isn't statistically significant. You just can't use the data in that way.

Quote:

Since you're a stats guru, is it true that an unhappy customer tells 10 of his friends while a happy one tells only 1?
I dont' know...why don't you take a poll? Just make sure you have a representative sample size for the given population.
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Old 01-23-2011, 10:14 AM
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Re: caveat emptor - let the flaming begin

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Originally Posted by MSCA View Post
One is not mutually exclusive of the other. Just because people are more vocal when something goes wrong has nothing to do with statistical data on potential issues of any given vehicle. In other words, if you read a few people complaining about similar problems on a message forum, that doesn't necessarily mean that the problem is statistically significant. It also doesn't mean that it isn't statistically significant. You just can't use the data in that way.



I dont' know...why don't you take a poll? Just make sure you have a representative sample size for the given population.
Never said it wasn't mutually exclusive. (if anything, my statement could be inferred that they are mutually inclusive) Just pointing out the simple observation that those with complaints are more likely to air them on message boards on the internet.
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